Fig. 2

Population diagram to illustrate clinical ramification of the QRISK2 score (cut-point 20%). Each circle (1000 in total) in the figure represents one male between the ages of 35 and 74 years, of whom approximately 90 will have a cardiovascular event over 10 years of follow-up (shaded circles) and 910 will not (unshaded circles). Red shaded cells indicate people deemed “at risk” using the QRISK2 score with a cut-point of ≥20%. Green cells are people deemed “not at risk”. These natural frequencies were derived using the reported natural frequencies in the external validation cohort for males ([4], Table 4). The externally validated C-statistic was 0.77; estimated the sensitivity 40% and specificity 88%; and prevalence of 0.09 over 10 years