Comparison of methods for predicting COVID-19-related death in the general population using the OpenSAFELY platform

Table 3 C-statistics for different sets of predictor variable sets, by sex and broad age group

Approach; measures of infection prevalence included; model form	Validation period	Predictor set	C-statistic
			Age 18–<70		Age 70–<80		Age 80+
			Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male
(A), none, Cox	1	Age-sex	0.809	0.834	0.580	0.575	0.641	0.533
		Comorbidities	0.887	0.917	0.842	0.772	0.772	0.641
		COVID-AGE	0.908	0.915	0.833	0.762	0.720	0.631
		Selected	0.876	0.910	0.838	0.785	0.765	0.651
		Full	0.892	0.929	0.846	0.789	0.762	0.662
	2	Age-sex	0.794	0.815	0.593	0.560	0.631	0.633
		Comorbidities	0.895	0.888	0.775	0.730	0.705	0.688
		COVID-AGE	0.906	0.888	0.765	0.733	0.698	0.679
		Selected	0.888	0.892	0.813	0.776	0.746	0.731
		Full	0.921	0.915	0.835	0.796	0.776	0.763
	3	Age-sex	0.832	0.819	0.570	0.600	0.655	0.650
		Comorbidities	0.905	0.890	0.784	0.735	0.706	0.708
		COVID-AGE	0.907	0.897	0.808	0.721	0.711	0.701
		Selected	0.910	0.890	0.837	0.792	0.747	0.750
		Full	0.918	0.908	0.856	0.830	0.780	0.783
(B), modelled estimates, Poisson	1	Age-sex	0.814	0.851	0.709	0.634	0.723	0.607
		Comorbidities	0.884	0.918	0.856	0.773	0.790	0.668
		Selected	0.862	0.906	0.861	0.765	0.789	0.679
		Full	0.890	0.928	0.863	0.786	0.786	0.688
	2	Age-sex	0.808	0.828	0.625	0.583	0.634	0.648
		Comorbidities	0.897	0.889	0.778	0.733	0.706	0.697
		Selected	0.894	0.895	0.825	0.786	0.767	0.751
		Full	0.923	0.915	0.836	0.799	0.777	0.765
	3	Age-sex	0.835	0.836	0.638	0.611	0.692	0.684
		Comorbidities	0.900	0.897	0.797	0.740	0.724	0.727
		Selected	0.900	0.889	0.852	0.794	0.781	0.772
		Full	0.919	0.908	0.863	0.824	0.793	0.792

ISSN: 2397-7523