Fig. 2

Optimism-corrected calibration curves of the prognostic model illustrate the relationship between the observed and predicted probability of urgent care visit or worse (A), hospitalization or worse (B) and admission to intensive care unit or death (C). The sample distribution of predicted probabilities is presented as marginal histograms. The sample is divided into 10 equally large groups of predicted probability and the mean observed probability of each group depicted as a black dot and point range centered at the mean predicted probability of the group. The weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) relationship between the observed and predicted probabilities of bootstrap resamples with replacement from 2000 imputed datasets are shown as individual thin gray lines with the mean relationship shown as a blue line. These are compared to the dashed black line, reflecting a perfect relationship between observed and predicted probabilities