Table 1 Key input parameters of the model
Description | Base case value | Source |
|---|---|---|
Number of smokers aged 55–80 | 13,000,000 | Office of National Statistics [36] Health survey for England [27] |
Probability someone responds to the initial invite and returns the questionnaire | 0.307 | UKLS trial [6] |
Probability someone joins screening programme given they are eligible | 0.465 | UKLS trial [6] |
Sensitivity of low-dose CT test for lung cancer | 0.709 | UKLS trial [6] |
Specificity of low-dose CT test for lung cancer | 0.624 | UKLS trial [6] |
Utility of male smoker in the UK general population/occult lung cancer | 0.7816 | Health Survey for England [27] |
Utility of female smoker in the UK general population/occult lung cancer | 0.7531 | Health Survey for England [27] |
Disutility associated with a false-positive screen | − 0.063 | Mazzone et al. [30] |
Disutility associated with anxiety of a screening event | − 0.010 | NELSON trial [29] |
Duration of disutility from false-positive screen | 3 months | Assumption |
Duration of disutility from screening anxiety | 2 weeks | Assumption |
Cost of low-dose CT scan | £98.80 | NHS Reference costs 2015/2016 [31] |