Table 4 Detailed clinical outcomes and costs, for participants of strategies on the cost-effectiveness frontier
Screening programme strategy | No screening | S-60-75-3% | S-55-75-3% | S-55-80-3% | T-55-80-3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean outcomes per participant (versus no screening) | |||||
 Number of screens |  | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.70 |
 Number of false positives |  | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.95 |
 Lead time (years) |  | 0.2995 | 0.2992 | 0.2952 | 0.3946 |
 Life years gained (years) |  | 0.0537 | 0.0568 | 0.0524 | 0.0762 |
 QALYs |  | 0.0008 | 0.0009 | 0.001 | 0.0012 |
 Change in lung cancer mortality |  | − 0.80% | − 0.45% | − 0.43% | − 0.64% |
 Change in 5-year lung cancer survival |  | + 16.1% | + 16.4% | + 16.1% | + 21.0% |
 Change in survival with lung cancer (years) |  | + 1.87 | + 1.89 | + 1.85 | + 2.44 |
 Change in age at lung cancer diagnosis (years) |  | − 1.7 | − 1.69 | − 1.62 | − 2.03 |
 Change in age at death from any cause (years) |  | + 0.05 | + 0.06 | + 0.05 | + 0.08 |
 Change in age at death from lung cancer (years) |  | + 0.16 | + 0.2 | + 0.23 | + 0.41 |
Outcomes per 100,000 participants | |||||
 Proportion of diagnoses arising from screening |  | 44.4% | 44.3% | 47.1% | 62.5% |
 Number of screen-detected cases |  | 1710 | 1785 | 2335 | 3185 |
 Number of interval cancers |  | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 |
 Additional lung cancer diagnoses |  | 295 | 300 | 450 | 590 |
 Lung cancer deaths averted |  | 170 | 100 | 120 | 180 |
 Life years gained |  | 5367 | 5677 | 5242 | 7617 |
Costs for each participant (£, versus no screening) | |||||
 LDCT screening |  | 104 | 104 | 104 | 275 |
 Lung cancer care |  | 1458 | 1445 | 1469 | 1724 |
 End-of-life |  | 534 | 530 | 515 | 505 |
 Total |  | 2097 | 2080 | 2088 | 2504 |
Population of 13 million smokers aged 55–80 years (lifetime costs, £ million) | |||||
 Screening administration | 0 | 80.16 | 110.97 | 118.66 | 118.66 |
 LDCT screening | 0 | 41.42 | 43.53 | 54.06 | 142.48 |
 Lung cancer care | 9355 | 9540 | 9547 | 9610 | 9742 |
 End-of-life | 4979 | 4972 | 4971 | 4970 | 4965 |
 Total | 14,334 | 14,633 | 14,673 | 14,753 | 14,968 |
 Additional vs no screening |  | 299.1 | 338.8 | 418.5 | 634.2 |