Table 1 Overview of selected prognostic models
Model name | Derivation country | Pre-existing or COVID-19 specific | Derivation health care setting | Derivation population | Intended moment of use | Predicted outcome | Predictors | Model type | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GAL-COVID-19-mortality model [18] | Spain | COVID-19 specific model | Primary care | Adults (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis | First presentation with COVID-19 infection at general practitioner | Mortality (no prediction horizon reported) | • Age • Sex • Lymphoma/leukemia • Liver disease • Dementia • Ischemic heart disease • Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease • Diabetes mellitus • Chronic kidney disease | Prediction model | ||
4C-Mortality Score [19] | UK | COVID-19 specific model | Hospital | Adults (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis | At hospital admission for COVID-19 infection | In-hospital mortality | • Age • Sex • Respiratory rate • Peripheral oxygen saturation on room air • Glasgow Coma Scale • Urea • C-reactive protein • Number of comorbidities (counted as chronic cardiac disease, chronic respiratory disease (excluding asthma), chronic renal disease, liver disease, dementia, chronic neurological conditions, connective tissue disease, diabetes mellitus, HIV or AIDS, malignancy, obesity) | Points-based score | ||
NEWS2 + model [20] | UK | Pre-existing risk stratification score updated for COVID-19 patients | Hospital | Adults (≥ 18 years) admitted to the hospital with a confirmed COVID -19 diagnosis | • At hospital admission for non-nosocomial patients (i.e., community-acquired COVID infection) • At the date of symptom onset for nosocomial patients. If the date of onset was unavailable the date of positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR minus 4 days was used instead | ICU admission or death within 14 days of admission | • Age • Peripheral oxygen saturation • Heart rate • Systolic blood pressure • Body temperature • Alertness • Supplemental oxygen flow rate • Urea • C-reactive protein • Estimated glomerular filtration rate • Neutrophil count • Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio | Prediction model | ||
Xie model [21] | China | COVID-19 specific model | Hospital | Adults (≥ 18 years) admitted to the hospital with a confirmed COVID -19 diagnosis | At hospital admission for COVID-19 infection | In-hospital mortality | • Age • Lactate dehydrogenase • Lymphocyte count • Oxygen saturation | Prediction model | ||
Wang clinical model [22] | China | COVID-19 specific model | Hospital | Adults (≥ 18 years) admitted to the hospital with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Pregnant women were excluded | At hospital admission for COVID-19 infection | In-hospital mortality | • Age • History of hypertension • History of heart disease | Prediction model | ||
APACHE-II Score [23] | USA | Pre-existing risk stratification score | Hospital | All newly admitted ICU patients | At admission to ICU | Mortality | • Age • Body temperature • Heart rate • Respiratory rate • Mean arterial pressure • Arterial oxygen tension • pH • Potassium • Sodium • Creatinine • Hematocrit • Leucocyte count • Glasgow Coma Scale • Chronic health evaluation | Points-based score | ||
CURB-65 [24] | UK, New Zealand, The Netherlands | Pre-existing risk stratification score | Hospital | Patients with community-acquired pneumonia | For triage at the emergency department | Mortality (30 days) | • Age • Alertness (new confusion) • Urea • Respiratory rate • Systolic blood pressure • Diastolic blood pressure | Points-based score | ||
SOFA Score [25] | Unclear | Pre-existing risk stratification score | Hospital | All ICU patients | At admission to and during admission at ICU | ICU-mortality | • Arterial oxygen tension • Fraction of inspired oxygen ratio • Glasgow Coma Scale • Mean arterial pressure • Administration of vasopressors • Creatinine • Bilirubin • Platelet count | Points-based score | ||