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  1. A number of recent papers have proposed methods to calculate confidence intervals and p values for net benefit used in decision curve analysis. These papers are sparse on the rationale for doing so. We aim to ass...

    Authors: Andrew J. Vickers, Ben Van Claster, Laure Wynants and Ewout W. Steyerberg
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:11
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  2. Prediction algorithms that quantify the expected benefit of a given treatment conditional on patient characteristics can critically inform medical decisions. Quantifying the performance of treatment benefit pr...

    Authors: Yuan Xia, Paul Gustafson and Mohsen Sadatsafavi
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:10
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  3. The performance of models for binary outcomes can be described by measures such as the concordance statistic (c-statistic, area under the curve), the discrimination slope, or the Brier score. At internal valid...

    Authors: Angelika Geroldinger, Lara Lusa, Mariana Nold and Georg Heinze
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:9
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  4. The multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) approach combines variable selection using backward elimination with a function selection procedure (FSP) for fractional polynomial (FP) functions. It is a relativ...

    Authors: Willi Sauerbrei, Edwin Kipruto and James Balmford
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:7
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  5. The COVID-19 pandemic has a large impact worldwide and is known to particularly affect the older population. This paper outlines the protocol for external validation of prognostic models predicting mortality r...

    Authors: Anum Zahra, Kim Luijken, Evertine J. Abbink, Jesse M. van den Berg, Marieke T. Blom, Petra Elders, Jan Festen, Jacobijn Gussekloo, Karlijn J. Joling, René Melis, Simon Mooijaart, Jeannette B. Peters, Harmke A. Polinder-Bos, Bas F. M. van Raaij, Annemieke Smorenberg, Hannah M. la Roi-Teeuw…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:8
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  6. The conventional count-based physical frailty phenotype (PFP) dichotomizes its criterion predictors—an approach that creates information loss and depends on the availability of population-derived cut-points. T...

    Authors: Yong-Hao Pua, Laura Tay, Ross Allan Clark, Julian Thumboo, Ee-Ling Tay, Shi-Min Mah, Pei-Yueng Lee and Yee-Sien Ng
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:5
    Content type: Research Published on:

  7. Many potential prognostic factors for predicting kidney transplantation outcomes have been identified. However, in Switzerland, no widely accepted prognostic model or risk score for transplantation outcomes is...

    Authors: Simon Schwab, Daniel Sidler, Fadi Haidar, Christian Kuhn, Stefan Schaub, Michael Koller, Katell Mellac, Ueli Stürzinger, Bruno Tischhauser, Isabelle Binet, Déla Golshayan, Thomas Müller, Andreas Elmer, Nicola Franscini, Nathalie Krügel, Thomas Fehr…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:6
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  8. Personalized disease management informed by quantitative risk prediction has the potential to improve patient care and outcomes. The integration of risk prediction into clinical workflow should be informed by ...

    Authors: Kristina D. Michaux, Rebecca K. Metcalfe, Paloma Burns, Annalijn I. Conklin, Alison M. Hoens, Daniel Smith, Laura Struik, Abdollah Safari, Don D. Sin and Mohsen Sadatsafavi
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:3
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  9. While administrative health records such as national registries may be useful data sources to study the epidemiology of psoriasis, they do not generally contain information on disease severity.

    Authors: Mie Sylow Liljendahl, Nikolai Loft, Alexander Egeberg, Lone Skov and Tri-Long Nguyen
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:2
    Content type: Research Published on:

  10. Cervical cancer remains a public health problem worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. There are challenges in timely screening and diagnosis for early detection and intervention. Therefore, studies on c...

    Authors: Frank Ssedyabane, Nixon Niyonzima, Joseph Ngonzi, Deusdedit Tusubira, Moses Ocan, Dickens Akena, Eve Namisango, Robert Apunyo, Alison Annet Kinengyere and Ekwaro A. Obuku
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:4
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  11. Simple blood tests can play an important role in identifying patients for cancer investigation. The current evidence base is limited almost entirely to tests used in isolation. However, recent evidence suggest...

    Authors: Pradeep S. Virdee, Clare Bankhead, Constantinos Koshiaris, Cynthia Wright Drakesmith, Jason Oke, Diana Withrow, Subhashisa Swain, Kiana Collins, Lara Chammas, Andres Tamm, Tingting Zhu, Eva Morris, Tim Holt, Jacqueline Birks, Rafael Perera, F. D. Richard Hobbs…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023 7:1
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  12. Clinical prediction models must be appropriately validated before they can be used. While validation studies are sometimes carefully designed to match an intended population/setting of the model, it is common ...

    Authors: Matthew Sperrin, Richard D. Riley, Gary S. Collins and Glen P. Martin
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:24
    Content type: Commentary Published on:

  13. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death among women. CVD is associated with reduced quality of life, significant treatment and management costs, and lost productivity. Estimating the risk of C...

    Authors: Steven Wambua, Francesca Crowe, Shakila Thangaratinam, Dermot O’Reilly, Colin McCowan, Sinead Brophy, Christopher Yau, Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar and Richard Riley
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:23
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  14. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic demands reliable prognostic models for estimating the risk of long COVID. We developed and validated a prediction model to estimate the probability of known com...

    Authors: Manja Deforth, Caroline E. Gebhard, Susan Bengs, Philipp K. Buehler, Reto A. Schuepbach, Annelies S. Zinkernagel, Silvio D. Brugger, Claudio T. Acevedo, Dimitri Patriki, Benedikt Wiggli, Raphael Twerenbold, Gabriela M. Kuster, Hans Pargger, Joerg C. Schefold, Thibaud Spinetti, Pedro D. Wendel-Garcia…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:22
    Content type: Research Published on:

  15. Schizophrenia is a severe mental illness characterized by recurrent psychoses that typically waxes and wanes through its prodromal, acute, and chronic phases. A large amount of research on individual prognosti...

    Authors: Akira Sato, Norio Watanabe, Kazushi Maruo, Toshihiro Moriyama and Toshi A. Furukawa
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:20
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  16. The incidence and mortality of liver cancer have been increasing in the UK in recent years. However, liver cancer is still under-studied. The Early Detection of Hepatocellular Liver Cancer (DeLIVER-QResearch) ...

    Authors: Weiqi Liao, Peter Jepsen, Carol Coupland, Hamish Innes, Philippa C. Matthews, Cori Campbell, Eleanor Barnes and Julia Hippisley-Cox
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:21
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  17. Rectal cancer has a high prevalence. The standard of care for management of localised disease involves major surgery and/or chemoradiotherapy, but these modalities are sometimes associated with mortality and m...

    Authors: Margarita Karageorgou, David M. Hughes, Arthur Sun Myint, D. Mark Pritchard and Laura J. Bonnett
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:19
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  18. The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Diagnostic Test Accuracy (DTA) provides guidance on important aspects of conducting a test accuracy systematic review. In this paper we present TOMAS-R (Template...

    Authors: Sue Mallett, Jacqueline Dinnes, Yemisi Takwoingi and Lavinia Ferrante de Ruffano
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:18
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  19. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to pred...

    Authors: Elias Eythorsson, Valgerdur Bjarnadottir, Hrafnhildur Linnet Runolfsdottir, Dadi Helgason, Ragnar Freyr Ingvarsson, Helgi K. Bjornsson, Lovisa Bjork Olafsdottir, Solveig Bjarnadottir, Arnar Snaer Agustsson, Kristin Oskarsdottir, Hrafn Hliddal Thorvaldsson, Gudrun Kristjansdottir, Aron Hjalti Bjornsson, Arna R. Emilsdottir, Brynja Armannsdottir, Olafur Gudlaugsson…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:17
    Content type: Research Published on:

  20. There is increasing evidence supporting the use of faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) in patients reporting symptoms associated with colorectal cancer (CRC), but most studies until now have focused on selected ...

    Authors: Anna Lööv, Cecilia Högberg, Mikael Lilja, Elvar Theodorsson, Per Hellström, Alexandra Metsini and Louise Olsson
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:16
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  21. Anal cancer is a rare cancer with rising incidence. Despite the relatively good outcomes conferred by state-of-the-art chemoradiotherapy, further improving disease control and reducing toxicity has proven chal...

    Authors: Stelios Theophanous, Per-Ivar Lønne, Ananya Choudhury, Maaike Berbee, Andre Dekker, Kristopher Dennis, Alice Dewdney, Maria Antonietta Gambacorta, Alexandra Gilbert, Marianne Grønlie Guren, Lois Holloway, Rashmi Jadon, Rohit Kochhar, Ahmed Allam Mohamed, Rebecca Muirhead, Oriol Parés…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:14
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  22. With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in ophthalmology, the need to define its diagnostic accuracy is increasingly important. The review aims to elucidate the diagnostic accuracy of AI algorithms in sc...

    Authors: Jessica Cao, Brittany Chang-Kit, Glen Katsnelson, Parsa Merhraban Far, Elizabeth Uleryk, Adeteju Ogunbameru, Rafael N. Miranda and Tina Felfeli
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:15
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  23. Prognostic models are used widely in the oncology domain to guide medical decision-making. Little is known about the risk of bias of prognostic models developed using machine learning and the barriers to their...

    Authors: Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Constanza L. Andaur Navarro, Benjamin Speich, Garrett Bullock, Johanna A. A. Damen, Lotty Hooft, Shona Kirtley, Richard D. Riley, Ben Van Calster, Karel G. M. Moons and Gary S. Collins
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:13
    Content type: Research Published on:

  24. Evaluating the accuracy of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (TB) tests is challenging due to lack of a gold standard. Latent class analysis (LCA), a statistical modeling approach, can adjust for reference tests’ im...

    Authors: Emily L. MacLean, Mikashmi Kohli, Lisa Köppel, Ian Schiller, Surendra K. Sharma, Madhukar Pai, Claudia M. Denkinger and Nandini Dendukuri
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:11
    Content type: Research Published on:

  25. There is substantial interest in the adaptation and application of so-called machine learning approaches to prognostic modelling of censored time-to-event data. These methods must be compared and evaluated aga...

    Authors: Hayley Smith, Michael Sweeting, Tim Morris and Michael J. Crowther
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:10
    Content type: Review Published on:

  26. Clinical prediction models/scores help clinicians make optimal evidence-based decisions when caring for their patients. To critically appraise such prediction models for use in a clinical setting, essential in...

    Authors: Kasim E. Abdulaziz, Jeffrey J. Perry, Krishan Yadav, Dar Dowlatshahi, Ian G. Stiell, George A. Wells and Monica Taljaard
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:9
    Content type: Review Published on:

  27. Prediction modeling studies often have methodological limitations, which may compromise model performance in new patients and settings. We aimed to examine the relation between methodological quality of model ...

    Authors: Isabel R. A. Retel Helmrich, Ana Mikolić, David M. Kent, Hester F. Lingsma, Laure Wynants, Ewout W. Steyerberg and David van Klaveren
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:8
    Content type: Research Published on:

  28. In response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, many in vitro diagnostic (IVD) tests for SARS-CoV-2 have been developed. Given the urgent clinical demand, researchers must balance the desire for precise estimates...

    Authors: Camilla Sammut-Powell, Charles Reynard, Joy Allen, John McDermott, Julian Braybrook, Rosa Parisi, Daniel Lasserson and Richard Body
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:12
    Content type: Research Published on:

  29. When a predictor variable is measured in similar ways at the derivation and validation setting of a prognostic prediction model, yet both differ from the intended use of the model in practice (i.e., “predictor...

    Authors: Kim Luijken, Jia Song and Rolf H. H. Groenwold
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:7
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  30. With rising cost pressures on health care systems, machine-learning (ML)-based algorithms are increasingly used to predict health care costs. Despite their potential advantages, the successful implementation o...

    Authors: Andrew W. Huang, Martin Haslberger, Neto Coulibaly, Omar Galárraga, Arman Oganisian, Lazaros Belbasis and Orestis A. Panagiotou
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:4
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  31. In diagnostic evaluation, it is necessary to assess the clinical impact of a new diagnostic as well as its diagnostic accuracy. The comparative interrupted time series design has been proposed as a quasi-exper...

    Authors: Thomas R. Fanshawe, Philip J. Turner, Marjorie M. Gillespie and Gail N. Hayward
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:3
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  32. Obtaining accurate estimates of the risk of COVID-19-related death in the general population is challenging in the context of changing levels of circulating infection.

    Authors: Elizabeth J. Williamson, John Tazare, Krishnan Bhaskaran, Helen I. McDonald, Alex J. Walker, Laurie Tomlinson, Kevin Wing, Sebastian Bacon, Chris Bates, Helen J. Curtis, Harriet J. Forbes, Caroline Minassian, Caroline E. Morton, Emily Nightingale, Amir Mehrkar, David Evans…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:6
    Content type: Research Published on:

  33. Diagnosing ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in an intensive care unit (ICU) is a complex process. Our aim was to collect, evaluate and represent the information relating to current clinical practice for t...

    Authors: W. S. Jones, J. Suklan, A. Winter, K. Green, T. Craven, A. Bruce, J. Mair, K. Dhaliwal, T. Walsh, A. J. Simpson, S. Graziadio and A. J. Allen
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:5
    Content type: Research Published on:

  34. Assessing calibration—the agreement between estimated risk and observed proportions—is an important component of deriving and validating clinical prediction models. Methods for assessing the calibration of pro...

    Authors: Peter C. Austin, Hein Putter, Daniele Giardiello and David van Klaveren
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:2
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  35. Clinical prediction models are developed widely across medical disciplines. When predictors in such models are highly collinear, unexpected or spurious predictor-outcome associations may occur, thereby potenti...

    Authors: Artuur M. Leeuwenberg, Maarten van Smeden, Johannes A. Langendijk, Arjen van der Schaaf, Murielle E. Mauer, Karel G. M. Moons, Johannes B. Reitsma and Ewoud Schuit
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2022 6:1
    Content type: Research Published on:

  37. Using two large datasets from Dorset, we previously reported an internally validated multivariable risk model for predicting the risk of GI malignancy in IDA—the IDIOM score. The aim of this retrospective obse...

    Authors: Orouba Almilaji, Gwilym Webb, Alec Maynard, Thomas P. Chapman, Brian S. F. Shine, Antony J. Ellis, John Hebden, Sharon Docherty, Elizabeth J. Williams and Jonathon Snook
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:23
    Content type: Research Published on:

  38. NG (nasogastric) tubes are used worldwide as a means to provide enteral nutrition. Testing the pH of tube aspirates prior to feeding is commonly used to verify tube location before feeding or medication. A pH ...

    Authors: Melody Ni, Mina E. Adam, Fatima Akbar, Jeremy R. Huddy, Simone Borsci, Peter Buckle, Francesca Rubulotta, Reuben Carr, Ian Fotheringham, Claire Wilson, Matthew Tsang, Susan Harding, Nichola White and George B. Hanna
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:22
    Content type: Research Published on:

  41. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a well-established complication in people with diabetes mellitus. Roughly one quarter of prevalent patients with diabetes exhibit a CKD stage of 3 or higher and the individual c...

    Authors: Mariella Gregorich, Andreas Heinzel, Michael Kammer, Heike Meiselbach, Carsten Böger, Kai-Uwe Eckardt, Gert Mayer, Georg Heinze and Rainer Oberbauer
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:19
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  42. Demand for both the ambulance service and the emergency department (ED) is rising every year and when this demand is excessive in both systems, ambulance crews queue at the ED waiting to hand patients over. So...

    Authors: Jamie Miles, Richard Jacques, Janette Turner and Suzanne Mason
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:18
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  43. Prognosis for the occurrence of relapses in individuals with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), the most common subtype of multiple sclerosis (MS), could support individualized decisions and diseas...

    Authors: Konstantina Chalkou, Ewout Steyerberg, Patrick Bossuyt, Suvitha Subramaniam, Pascal Benkert, Jens Kuhle, Giulio Disanto, Ludwig Kappos, Chiara Zecca, Matthias Egger and Georgia Salanti
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:17
    Content type: Research Published on:

  44. Patients presenting with chest pain represent a large proportion of attendances to emergency departments. In these patients clinicians often consider the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), the tim...

    Authors: Charles Reynard, Glen P. Martin, Evangelos Kontopantelis, David A. Jenkins, Anthony Heagerty, Brian McMillan, Anisa Jafar, Rajendar Garlapati and Richard Body
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:16
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  45. Superficial venous thrombosis (SVT) is considered a benign thrombotic condition in most patients. However, it also can cause serious complications, such as clot progression to deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and ...

    Authors: F. S. van Royen, M. van Smeden, K. G. M. Moons, F. H. Rutten and G. J. Geersing
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:15
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  46. The United Kingdom Myeloma Research Alliance (UK-MRA) Myeloma Risk Profile is a prognostic model for overall survival. It was trained and tested on clinical trial data, aiming to improve the stratification of ...

    Authors: Kara-Louise Royle and David A. Cairns
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:14
    Content type: Methodology Published on:

  47. Incremental value (IncV) evaluates the performance change between an existing risk model and a new model. Different IncV metrics do not always agree with each other. For example, compared with a prescribed-dos...

    Authors: Qian M. Zhou, Lu Zhe, Russell J. Brooke, Melissa M. Hudson and Yan Yuan
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:13
    Content type: Research Published on:

  48. Most patients who present with depression are treated in primary care by general practitioners (GPs). Relapse of depression is common (at least 50% of patients treated for depression will relapse after a singl...

    Authors: Andrew S. Moriarty, Lewis W. Paton, Kym I. E. Snell, Richard D. Riley, Joshua E. J. Buckman, Simon Gilbody, Carolyn A. Chew-Graham, Shehzad Ali, Stephen Pilling, Nick Meader, Bob Phillips, Peter A. Coventry, Jaime Delgadillo, David A. Richards, Chris Salisbury and Dean McMillan
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:12
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  49. Rapid treatment of stroke improves outcomes, but accurate early recognition can be challenging. Between 20 and 40% of patients suspected to have stroke by ambulance and emergency department staff later receive...

    Authors: Lisa Shaw, Sara Graziadio, Clare Lendrem, Nicholas Dale, Gary A. Ford, Christine Roffe, Craig J. Smith, Philip M. White and Christopher I. Price
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:11
    Content type: Protocol Published on:

  50. Invasive urodynamics is used to investigate the causes of lower urinary tract symptoms; a procedure usually conducted in secondary care by specialist practitioners. No study has yet investigated the feasibilit...

    Authors: Sarah Milosevic, Natalie Joseph-Williams, Bethan Pell, Elizabeth Cain, Robyn Hackett, Ffion Murdoch, Haroon Ahmed, A. Joy Allen, Alison Bray, Samantha Clarke, Marcus J. Drake, Michael Drinnan, Kerenza Hood, Tom Schatzberger, Yemisi Takwoingi, Emma Thomas-Jones…
    Citation: Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2021 5:10
    Content type: Research Published on:
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Diagnostic and Prognostic Research

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